Evaluation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Operation under Climate Change from Kesem Reservoir, Ethiopia

Climate changes significantly cause the precipitation deficiency and in turn reduce inflow amount reservoir affecting hydroelectric power generation. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate hydropower generation operation under climate change from Kesem reservoir. Recent Representative Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used impact on Power transformation equation variance scaling approach amalgamated adjust bias correction temperature, respectively. Bias, root mean square error, coefficient variation check accuracy projected rainfall. base future precipitation, evaporation trend analysed using Mann–Kendall test. flow calibration validation carried out by Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), evaluated with simulation model (MODSIM 8.1) scenarios. performance found good Nash–Sutcliffe (NSE) 0.72 determination (R2) 0.73 for NSE 0.74 R2 0.75 validation. Projected predicted increasing decreasing temperature For RCP4.5 scenario, average energy is likely decrease 0.64% 0.82% both short-term (2021–2050) long-term (2051–2080), In case RCP8.5 will be decreased 1.06% 1.35% long-term, Remarkable reduction revealed relation scenario. This indicates that there high fluctuation research finding crucial decision-makers, authorities, governmental nongovernmental organizations, watershed management agencies take care sustainability